Timeless wisdom from a 1922 Wall St. classic cautions investors in 2006 that there is no sure thing. Even with the largest annual profits ever reported by a public company, War in Iraq, Muslim riots across Europe and the Middle East, and the inevitable confrontation with Iran over its nuclear weapons program, even oil is not a sure investment.
While those who are on line buying gasoline express outrage at Exxon-Mobil's $36 billion profits for 2005, the largest annual profits ever reported by a public company, those who are, online trading stock are looking for a way to capitalize on what appears to be a sure thing in 2006.
Whether it is the War in Iraq, Muslim riots across Europe and the Middle East, or the inevitable confrontation with Iran over its nuclear weapons program, it seems a good investment for, stock trading or, www.hogsgetfat.com/ speculationlanding.html [commodity trading to take a position to profit from increased oil prices.
But before investing in a sure thing, it is important to note the timeless wisdom of Jesse Livermore. In the fictionalized account of his life and philosophy, Reminiscences of A Stock Operator, Livermore reminds us that “among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected -- I might even say of the unexpectable - ranks high….”
In taking his position in Coffee in 1917, he noted that, “the rise was so sure, so logical, that I figured that I simply couldn't help making several millions of dollars. But I didn't.”
Livermore tells the story of his commodity trading in the coffee markets in 1917.
"By July, 1917…the advance in commodity prices over the pre-war level ranged from 100 to 400 percent. There was only one exception, and that was coffee. ...
It didn't require a Sherlock Holmes to size up the situation...Coming sure and fast, that profit of millions! But it never reached me. No; it wasn't side-tracked by a sudden change in conditions.
What happened? The unexpectable! What had never happened in anybody's experience; what I therefore had no reason to guard against. ... It was simply that the fellows who had sold me the coffee, the shorts...devised a new way of welshing. They rushed to Washington for help, and got it….
The Price Fixing Committee ... fixed on a maximum price for raw coffee and also fixed a time limit for closing out all existing contracts... Those profits of millions that I had deemed as certain to come my way as any I ever made failed completely to materialize.…
This particular deal has a certain educational value. It was as pretty as any I ever went into. The rise was so sure, so logical, that I figured that I simply couldn't help making several millions of dollars. But I didn't."
With consumers howling over $2.50 to $3.00 gas, and Congressional elections on the way, perhaps in 2006 it might benefit those trading stocks or commodities to remember another quote from that 1923 classic: "There is nothing new in Wall Street.".
Reminiscences of A Stock Operator has been studied by successful investors and traders in the markets for more than 80 years. It is cited by more successful traders as the single book most influential in their success.
On March 7, 2006, Reminiscences will be republished by HogsGetFat.com, for the first time in a format that makes review and study of this book's timeless wisdom simple.
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